Imfuno kunye nokunikezelwa kwamakhonkco ahlukeneyo kwisiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka sele iphunyeziwe.Ngokuqhelekileyo, imfuno kwisiqingatha sokuqala sika-2022 idlula kakhulu ilindelekileyo.Njengexesha eliphakamileyo lemveli kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka, kulindeleke ukuba lidume ngakumbi.
1. 1-6Monthly polysilicon unikezelo kunye nemfuno forecast
NgoJuni 2022, imveliso yepolysilicon yelizwe lam ifikelele kwirekhodi eliphezulu leetoni ezingama-62,000;ukususela ngoJanuwari ukuya kuJuni, imveliso ye-polysilicon ibonise ukunyuka okuzinzileyo.Nangona kunjalo, ngenxa yengozi yomlilo ye-East Hope kunye nokulungiswa kweminye imigca yokuvelisa ngoJuni, izinga lokukhula kwemveliso ye-polysilicon yanciphisa ngoJuni.
Ngokwengxelo yamva nje yeSilicon Industry Branch, imveliso yepolysilicon yasekhaya kulindeleke ukuba inyuke ngeetoni ezingama-120,000 kwisiqingatha sesibini se-2022 xa kuthelekiswa nesiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka.Kwi-Q3, ngenxa yempembelelo yeqondo lokushisa kunye nokugcinwa, ukunyuka kuncinci, kwaye ukunyuka okukhulu kwenzeka kwikota yesine, ngelixa imveliso kwikota yesine Igalelo leemfuno zemarike kwi-2022 lincinci.
Ukususela ngoJanuwari ukuya kuJuni, imveliso yasekhaya yayimalunga neetoni ezingama-340,000, kwaye unikezelo lulonke lwalumalunga neetoni ezingama-400,000.Phakathi kwabo, nangona imveliso yasekhaya isakhula ngoMeyi-Juni, i-polysilicon ephuma kumazwe angaphandle iye yachaphazeleka kakhulu yindyikityha yasekhaya kunye neemfazwe zangaphandle (ingxabano yaseRashiya-ye-Ukrainian), okubangelwa ukunqongophala okukhulu kwepolysilicon., ukwanda okuqhubekayo ngoMeyi-Juni kwakuphantse kuphindwe kabini ukunyuka kwangaphambili ngoJanuwari-Aprili.
Kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka, kulindeleke ukuba imfuno yepolysilicon kwilizwe lam iya kufikelela kwiitoni ezingama-550,000, ukwanda kwe-34% ngaphezu kwesiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka, kwaye imfuno yonyaka iya kufikelela kwiitoni ze-950,000.Nangona kunjalo, imveliso ye-polysilicon yasekhaya yonyaka i-800,000 yeetoni kuphela, umthamo wokungenisa malunga neetoni ze-100,000, kwaye ukunikezelwa okupheleleyo yi-900,000 yeetoni.Ukuba ixesha elisusela ngoNovemba 2021 ukuya ku-Oktobha 2022 lisetyenziswa njengomjikelo wokubonelela nge-polysilicon kumthamo ofakwe kwi-2022, ukunikezelwa okusebenzayo kunyaka wonke malunga neetoni ze-800,000.
2. Inzuzo yePolysilicon yanda amaxesha amaninzi
Ubonelelo kunye nemfuno yepolysilicon ngo-2022 iya kuhlala incinci, kwaye ixabiso eliqhelekileyo lepolysilicon kulindeleke ukuba lifikelele ngaphezu kwe-270 yuan / kg, eliphezulu kakhulu kunexabiso eliqhelekileyo le-polysilicon ngo-2021.
Amaxabiso e-silicon ye-industrial kunye ne-silicone aqalise ukuhla kwiiveki ezimbini ezidlulileyo, ngoko ke ixabiso le-polysilicon alinakunyuka kwakhona, kwaye imida yenzuzo iya kuphucula kakhulu.Bobabini umthamo kunye nexabiso livukile, kwaye inzuzo yeenkampani ze-polysilicon kulo nyaka ingaba ngamaxesha angama-3-5 kunyaka ophelileyo.
3. I-PV entsha yonyaka kunye nobonelelo lweemodyuli
Ukunikezelwa kweetoni ze-800,000 ze-polysilicon zihambelana nokuphuma kwemodyuli malunga ne-310-320 GW.Emva kokurhoxisa isitokhwe sokhuseleko kwikhonkco nganye yekhonkco leshishini, iimodyuli ezinokubonelelwa kwi-terminal ziya kuba ngaphakathi kwe-300GW, ehambelana ne-250GW ye-photovoltaic entsha ye-photovoltaic efakwe amandla.
Ukusukela oko unikezelo lwepolysilicon yehlabathi jikelele ngo-2021 lusenalo intsalela xa kuthelekiswa nokuthunyelwa kwemodyuli ye-190GW yonyaka, le ntsalela iya kuguqulwa ibe zizitokhwe zokhuseleko eziziswe kukwandiswa kwee-wafers, iiseli, kunye neemodyuli ngo-2022, ngoko ke i-250GW yonyusa umthamo ofakiweyo wePV. ukuba yi-forecast engathathi hlangothi ye-2022. Ukuba ikhonkco nganye inokuqinisa ulawulo lwe-inventory, ukunciphisa ukugcinwa kwezinto ezikhuselekileyo, kunye nekhonkco yokungenisa i-polysilicon ingaphuculwa ngakumbi, ngoko ukunikezelwa kwepolysilicon yonyaka kulindeleke ukuba kwandiswe ngakumbi, kwaye ukuthunyelwa kwemodyuli ehambelanayo kulindeleke ukuba kufikelele ngakumbi. ngaphezu kwe-320GW.Ulindelo olunethemba lomthamo ofakiweyo kusekujikeleze i-270GW.
Ixesha lokuposa: May-16-2023